WHAT TO DO IF DECLINING MARKET
HAS ALTERED YOUR RETIREMENT PLAN
07/01
Are you among the retirees or those approaching
retirement who are thinking of altering their retirement
plan because of the down stock market? Here are some
suggestions for how you might manage a change in plans, or
even keep your original retirement dream intact.
Is it as bad as it appears? It's natural for
investors to focus on their biggest losers rather than on
their overall portfolio. Investors in high tech stocks have
particularly felt the brunt of the down market, in some
cases watching those securities decline 50 percent or more
in value. Yet because some of those hot stocks you were so
confident about a year ago have nosedived doesn't mean your
entire portfolio has also plummeted. A well-diversified
portfolio, with a mix of domestic and international stocks,
bonds, cash and perhaps real estate, might be down only
slightly, especially compared with where you were two or
three years ago. Calculate how your overall portfolio is
actually doing before changing retirement plans.
Ride it out. Let's assume that the market has hit your overall
portfolio pretty hard. Certainly many people jumped on the high tech
bandwagon, often late in its run, and are now looking at big losses.
Many CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER" practitioners are recommending that
most investors not sell unless it's necessary, or if you've lost confidence
in stocks. If you haven't already locked in your losses by selling,
consider hanging on to your losers for now. The market as a whole, though
not necessarily specific individual stocks, among other investments,
almost certainly will recover. The question is, how quickly?
Since 1949, the median bear market, from peak to valley, has lasted
around 12 months, with a median decline of 23 percent, according to
Dow Jones & Company.[Bear Market file] The longest decline
during this period was 22.8 months, from 1973-74, with a 45 percent
decline in value. The shortest was less than three months. The current
bear market has run over 14 months,[Bear Market file] but there
are signs that the U.S. economy is not as bad as many prognosticators
feared, and the market itself has also recovered some of its losses.
(However, past performance is not indicative of future results)
Sell. The advantage of selling losers now is to
cut your losses in the event the market and the economy are
only taking a breather before dropping more. Selling also
may bring your portfolio closer to the investment mix you
originally designed, which will benefit you in the future.
Selling, of course, locks in your losses, so consult with
your financial advisor before selling.
Re-examine your portfolio. The fact that some
people approaching or in retirement feel compelled to alter
their retirement plans suggests they have the wrong
investment strategy and a poorly diversified portfolio. Many
financial planners believe retirees should stay in stocks in
order to combat inflation, but they typically recommend
keeping anywhere from two to five years of retirement assets
in lower-risk investments, such as money market funds,
short-term bonds and certificates of deposit. Retirees can
draw on these cash equivalents for living expenses while the
higher-risk stock portion of their portfolio recovers.
Revise your personal finances. Those approaching
retirement may be able to compensate for some of the down
market by cutting expenses and investing more between now
and their original planned retirement date. Cutting expenses
can be good practice for retirement, anyway, and if your
current portfolio rebounds with the market, then you'll have
that much more money to enjoy.
Scale back your retirement vision. A substantial
real decline in your portfolio value may, unfortunately,
require you to scale back your retirement goals. Those close
to retirement may have to work longer than intended. This
allows you more time to add to your retirement accounts
(buying stocks at "bargain prices"), increase the size of
your Social Security and pension benefits, and shorten the
number of retirement years your nest egg must fund. Current
retirees may have to return to work, at least part time.
An alternative is to reduce your planned retirement
lifestyle. Scaling back also offers the possibility that
your investments will recover substantially during future
market climbs, allowing you to recoup your original
retirement dream.
This article was produced by the Consumer Affairs Dept.
of The Financial Planning Association and provided to you
courtesy of Nigel B. Taylor, CFP, Santa Monica, California.
If you have any questions or concerns regarding this, or any
other financial topic and are a resident of Southern
California, please call me at 1-800-444-2237 (California
residents only please), or click on the "MORE INFO" button
to arrange for a free initial consultation in the comfort of
your home or office.
  
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