11/01
It's not easy to grasp. It goes against our instincts. But the fact is, despite the horror of the terrorist attacks on September 11, investing basics remain the same.
Our initial instinct is to bail out of the market, and once out, stay out, especially as the market goes through steep declines in the days and weeks following the attack. The personal trauma nearly every American feels at the destruction and loss of life understandably colors our financial judgment. But unless you are changing your core reasons for investing, retirement, college funding, passing wealth on to heirs, now is not the time nor the reason to abruptly alter your investment strategies, say many CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER" professionals.
CFP professionals and other investment experts have good reason to counsel a calm, long-term outlook at such a time. Our economy and our capital markets have repeatedly demonstrated their resiliency. Consider a few of these examples.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 12 percent in the early weeks of the Korean War, yet bounced back 19.2 percent within another four months, according to Ned Davis Research
- The S&P 500* declined 1 percent soon after Pearl Harbor, but was up 20 percent within one year and was up 81 percent after three years, according to Ibbotson Associates
- After the Dow plummeted 34.2 percent in the October 1987 panic, it climbed 15 percent in the ensuing four months
- The Dow stumbled 4.3 percent in the early days of Desert Storm, but had climbed nearly 20 percent two months later, according to Ned Davis Research
These examples are not to say the market or the economy will necessarily rebound as strongly or quickly within weeks or months this time. The scope of the devastating attack on American soil has no equivalent in our nation's history. Compounding matters, the market has been on an 18-month skid and the economy on the edge of a recession. Yet, say financial planners, the market and the economy will recover, later if not sooner, and that investors should hold on. Selling only locks in the losses. Just as the good times of the late 1990s so many investors thought would never end finally did end, so too will the bad times end. Nonetheless, this could be a good time to reexamine your portfolio, say planners.
First, ask yourself why you are in the market. Are you investing for long-term goals such as retirement, college funding or accumulating assets for your heirs? Are those goals still at least several years away? If so, stick to your long-term strategies. You will likely weather just fine any temporary downturns along the way. Automatic investing can help keep emotions out of play. And an emergency fund with enough cash to fund three or four months of bare-bones living expenses also helps reduce the need or impulse to sell assets that might be down in value.
What you should not be in the market for is the short term. Investing in the market in the hope of making some extra bucks to buy a car or make a down payment on a home within a year or two is not a good idea because you may not recover from any losses in such a short time.
This also is a good time to reexamine your portfolio to see if you have the right investment mix to help weather a down market. For example, being overloaded in a certain area such as stocks, or certain types of stocks, makes the portfolio more vulnerable to large or sustained declines, as has happened to many tech-heavy investors in the last year.
Also, ask yourself how worried you have become about your portfolio since the attack. Investors with a long-term outlook and a properly balanced portfolio are less likely to panic-sell. Excessive worries may also indicate that you are invested in assets that are too risky for your long-term needs.
You may need to sell some assets if your portfolio needs serious readjustment or you need cash. However, consult with your financial planner first. Now may not be the right time to make significant changes, or you may have alternatives you haven't thought of.
* The S&P 500 is an unmanaged stock index. S&P 500 is a Registered Trademark of Standard & Poor's Corporation. Investors cannot invest directly in the S&P 500. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
This article was produced by the Consumer Affairs Dept. of The Financial Planning Association and provided to you courtesy of Nigel B. Taylor, CFP, Santa Monica, California. If you have any questions or concerns regarding this, or any other financial topic and are a resident of Southern California, please call me at 1-800-444-2237 (California residents only please), or click on the "MORE INFO" button to arrange for a free initial consultation in the comfort of your home or office.
