PLANNING FOR THE EXTRA LONG
RETIREMENT
06/01
You've undoubtedly seen the headlines. Tantalizing hints
from laboratory research suggests that medical science may
soon break the "age barrier" of 120 years, and gene
manipulation will allow people to live to 140 or even 150
years. Much of this speculation is based on work with fruit
flies, and such breakthroughs, if they occur, are probably
years away. Nonetheless, the headlines accurately reflect
one reality: people are living longer, much longer, and that
is having a significant impact on planning for
retirement.
Let's look closer at the reality behind these headlines
and what impact it might have on your retirement plans.
First, to understand the potential impact you need to
understand some basics about life expectancy.
Life expectancy of Americans increased nearly 30 years
during the 20th century.[Retiree file, PDF table]
The life expectancy of a male born today is approximately 73
years, and the life expectancy of a female is 79 years,
according to federal statistics. But that's a misleading
statistic for retirees. Those figures reflect all deaths at
all ages. If you survive to retirement age, your overall
life expectancy becomes longer.
A man reaching age 65 in 1995 can expect to live another
15.6 years, nearly age 81! A woman reaching age 65 can
expect to live at least another 18.9 years[Vanguard
Plain Talk on Preparing to Retire] nearly age 84! This
is sometimes called longevity: how long we are expected to
live assuming we reach a milestone age, such as 65. Every
milestone we reach increases our overall life expectancy.
Furthermore, these rates of longevity are increasing. In the
first 50 years of the 20th century, the longevity for people
reaching age 65 increased 1.3 years for men and 2.8 years
for women.[NEFE paper] From 1950 to 1995, however,
longevity for men increased 2.7 years and for women it
increased 4.2 years.
But even these longevity figures are misleading, because
they are only averages. Half of the people reaching a
particular milestone age will live beyond that age. That is,
if you are a male who lives to age 65, you have an even
chance of living beyond the life expectancy of age 81. We
know that Americans now routinely live well into their
80s.
Living into their 90s is far from rare, and Willard Scott
never has trouble finding people celebrating their 100th
birthday. Federal statistics say that one-third of the men
reaching age 65, and nearly half of the women, will reach
age 85. And with married couples, it's even more likely that
one of you will live beyond life expectancy.
What does this mean for your retirement plans? Let's say
you project that you will draw money from your nest egg
accounts, such as a 401(k) and individual retirement
accounts, at a pace that depletes the nest egg roughly by
the end of your life expectancy. Yet as the statistics show,
you have a 50-50 chance of living beyond that average life
expectancy. If that happens, you will have outlived your
nest egg, and the only income you will have from then on
would be Social Security payments and perhaps payments from
annuities or a defined benefit plan, which will continue for
the "extra" years you live.
Running out of retirement savings is a gamble most people
don't want to take. Financial planners commonly project
clients living to age 90 or 95. And for some people, even
that isn't long enough. So while you may not live to 120 or
beyond, the odds are increasing that you are going to live a
longer time than you might once have thought.
What does this mean for retirement planning? What if you
are one of those who celebrates your 100th with Willard
Scott?
There is no easy answer here. Long retirements suggest
that people may need to be more cautious in their spending
in their early years of retirement in order to stretch their
resources out further. For others, it may mean being more
aggressive in their retirement investing. Working full or
part time beyond the traditional retirement age may become
necessary. It will be increasingly important to protect
against the high expense of late-life health problems by
buying long-term care insurance. But most of all, many of us
will need to readjust our thinking, and consider the
possibility of 100-year lives and what that means for our
retirement.
This article was produced by the Consumer Affairs Dept.
of The Financial Planning Association and provided to you
courtesy of Nigel B. Taylor, CFP, Santa Monica, California.
If you have any questions or concerns regarding this, or any
other financial topic and are a resident of Southern
California, please call me at 1-800-444-2237 (California
residents only please), or click on the "MORE INFO" button
to arrange for a free initial consultation in the comfort of
your home or office.
  
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