CONVERTIBLE
SECURITIES: INVESTING FOR THE WARY
02/02
The sale of convertibles had a banner year in 2001, and
we aren't talking about car sales.
Convertibles are hybrid securities (either
interest-paying bonds or preferred (nonvoting) stock) that
can be swapped for common shares of the issuing company's
stock at a predetermined price. As you might guess,
convertibles appeal to investors looking to participate in
the stock market, but who like their participation more on
the tame side. While not all financial planners are
enthusiastic about convertibles, many like their
diversification value because they are not strongly
correlated to stocks, and they recommend a five to ten
percent portfolio allocation.
Selecting good convertibles is tricky, and issues available to individual
investors are limited. It's important to understand some basics about
how convertibles work, including their risks, and what makes them potentially
attractive.
A convertible bond pays out a fixed coupon rate,
typically semi-annually, and has a fixed maturity. The yield
is usually higher than the company's common stock dividend,
but lower than the company's nonconvertible bonds. The
preferred stock version usually pays out quarterly a higher
fixed dividend, with no maturity. Both can be converted to a
predetermined number of shares of common stock. The bond
version normally is considered safer than its preferred
version because bondholders have priority over stockholders
should the company go bankrupt.
With each version, you can either sell the convertible or
convert to the company's common stock and then sell the
shares. The ability to convert is, of course, what makes
convertibles attractive. If bond prices fall or the stock
price shoots up, it can pay off to convert; if the stock
tumbles, the interest-paying feature of the convertible
tends to blunt the drop. The biggest risk is if interest
rates rise (thus lowering bond prices) at the same time
stock prices are dropping. Then convertibles suffer a double
whammy.
The decision to convert depends on a characteristic of
convertibles known as its "conversion premium." When you buy
a convertible, you buy it at a price above the par value of
the bond. Say you buy a convertible at $1,100 a share. You
also need to know the conversion ratio, which is how many
shares you can exchange the convertible for at the time you
buy the convertible. Multiply the conversion ratio times the
price of the stock. Say that result is $900; that is, you
can convert the convertible bond into $900 worth of stock.
The difference between the convertible price ($1,100) and
the $900 in stock is the conversion premium. (in this
example, 22 percent)
Conversion premiums commonly run at 20 to 35 percent,
though they can go much higher. The lower the premium, the
more likely the convertible will track the stock value up
and down. Higher premium convertibles act more like bonds
and make it less likely the stock's value will climb high
enough to make it worth converting. The extra yield on the
convertible is what eventually should make up for the
premium.
On a risk/reward basis, proponents argue that convertibles can share
in roughly 60 to 75 percent of a stock's upside, but with only 30 to
50 percent of the downside risk. For example, in November 2002, the
Morgan Stanley U.S. 225 Convertible Index* was down about 10 percent,
while the underlying equities were down 30 percent. Critics argue, however,
that overall the risk/reward ratio is actually much closer, so you are
no better off than if you simply bought regular bonds and stocks. (Past
performance is not indicative of future results)
One of the risks of convertibles is that new companies
and high techs are more apt to issue convertibles than blue
chippers, so they can be pretty volatile. Another risk is
that many convertibles are issued based on bonds rated below
investment grade.
Investors also need to be wary of call features. Issues
usually can't call sooner than three years, but there is the
risk that if you pay a high premium you won't have time to
make it up through interest or dividend payments before a
call.
As is apparent, convertibles are a complicated security. If you're
interested, discuss them with your financial advisor.
* An index is a hypothetical potfolio of specific securities (Common
examples are the Dow Jones industrial and the S&P 500) The performance
of which is often used as a benchmark in judging the relative performance
of certain asset classes. Indexes are unmanaged portfolios and should
only be compared with securities with similar investment characteristics
and criteria. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past Performance
is not indicative of future results.
This article was produced by the Consumer Affairs Dept.
of The Financial Planning Association and provided to you
courtesy of Nigel B. Taylor, CFP, Santa Monica, California.
If you have any questions or concerns regarding this, or any
other financial topic and are a resident of Southern
California, please call me at 1-800-444-2237 (California
residents only please), or click on the "MORE INFO" button
to arrange for a free initial consultation in the comfort of
your home or office.
  
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